0x803DAa75BE7FB97f5c5c59328F9a4AbE1e54135d-1770747638760
0x803daa75be7fb97f5c5c59328f9a4abe1e54135d
- Realised P&L
- $-32.3k
- Volume
- $1.17M
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $5.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.055 | $5.8k | −$9.6k |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.2k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.7k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$600.00 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.613US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$74.33at 0.660US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$21.84at 0.314Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.984Will Kanye tweet again by February 28?
- +$-24.61at 0.390US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 11:25 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999997 | $368.00 |
| 05-03 11:24 | Trump out as President by June 30? | SELL | 0.0203443783 | $355.57 |
| 04-23 14:08 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $558.32 |
| 04-23 14:08 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.0569183496 | $6.2k |
| 04-23 14:08 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $7.2k |
| 04-08 07:05 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.005 | $600.00 |
| 04-08 07:03 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $600.00 |
| 04-05 16:13 | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $10.7k |
| 04-05 13:39 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $10.7k |
| 04-02 08:57 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6134549356 | $6.6k |
| 04-02 01:09 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.388552448 | $6.6k |
| 03-31 06:52 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.39 | $6.6k |
| 03-31 06:52 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.6k |
| 03-30 16:59 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.69 | $7.5k |
| 03-30 16:45 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $4.0k |