mgxsx
0x803a112b5eb1404eea463b26a2318cfcb3b9219e
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $528.7k
- Markets traded
- 1,902
- Open portfolio
- $439.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,902
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 8? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $331.83 | +$0.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.997 | 1.000 | $107.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$308.69at 0.525Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 10?
- +$255.99at 0.401Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 8?
- +$254.48at 0.809Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 23?
- +$253.06at 0.890Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24?
- +$235.34at 0.850Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 07:16 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $331.67 |
| 10-08 05:23 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.78 | $39.00 |
| 10-08 05:23 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.76 | $7.60 |
| 10-08 04:51 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.64 |
| 10-08 03:44 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.0181980907 | $0.46 |
| 10-08 03:43 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.92 |
| 10-08 02:50 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 8? | SELL | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 10-08 01:24 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.8550125 | $34.20 |
| 10-08 01:18 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.86 | $8.60 |
| 10-08 00:46 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.086 | $0.86 |
| 10-08 00:46 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.7 | $49.00 |
| 10-08 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 10-07 16:12 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 10-07 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.977 | $42.47 |
| 10-07 07:34 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.9791485368 | $66.25 |