mazan
0x802b8b1ed0816d78637f88a04ff3b771737d712e
- Realised P&L
- $33.5k
- Volume
- $496.0k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $13.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.871 | 0.955 | $11.7k | +$1.0k |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.900 | $1.1k | −$35.48 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.745 | $1.0k | −$88.11 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.185 | $0.99 | −$3.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.2kat 0.878Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$7.8kat 0.885Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$1.0kat 0.980Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$968.25at 0.831Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$885.00at 0.950Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 20:27 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8099999999 | $1.1k |
| 09-18 20:27 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.1k |
| 09-16 16:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $49.7k |
| 09-14 21:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $10.0k |
| 07-26 17:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.00 |
| 07-26 17:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8249376325 | $2.6k |
| 07-26 17:23 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8229103767 | $2.0k |
| 07-19 18:34 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5875 | $5.88 |
| 07-01 18:03 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $10.4k |
| 05-01 17:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | BUY | 0.984 | $429.02 |
| 04-03 19:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? | BUY | 0.982 | $239.94 |
| 03-02 16:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? | BUY | 0.992 | $99.20 |
| 03-02 16:06 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $270.00 |
| 02-02 23:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? | BUY | 0.992 | $10.0k |
| 01-27 16:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.4k |