0x8024b1B023135F0d83f8CC393E81Fc6b8f494841-1772957337595
0x8024b1b023135f0d83f8cc393e81fc6b8f494841
- Realised P&L
- $3.45
- Volume
- $91.49
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $1.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.235 | $1.00 | −$1.09 |
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.702 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.28 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.22 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.40 |
| Hurricanes vs. Penguins · Penguins | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.32 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 17? · No | 0.538 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.32 |
| Pelicans vs. Kings · Pelicans | 0.647 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.48 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.33 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.70 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.05at 0.360Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?
- +$3.86at 0.437Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?
- +$2.60at 0.509Ducks vs. Maple Leafs
- +$1.76at 0.477Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?
- +$1.69at 0.487Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 10:10 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.4899998992 | $2.09 |
| 08-30 00:22 | Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999122 | $1.11 |
| 08-22 19:03 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 06-30 15:28 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.4699998602 | $1.58 |
| 06-27 14:27 | Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.7099999938 | $1.14 |
| 06-23 09:08 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.4199998991 | $2.33 |
| 06-21 16:23 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.28 |
| 06-20 15:20 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.4299999242 | $2.95 |
| 05-10 11:08 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.77 |
| 05-09 11:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999671 | $1.85 |
| 05-07 12:24 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers | BUY | 0.6099999921 | $1.55 |
| 05-06 14:11 | Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? | BUY | 0.4799999392 | $1.58 |
| 05-05 08:05 | Wild vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.649999887 | $1.15 |
| 05-04 18:35 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | BUY | 0.5399998584 | $1.22 |
| 04-11 09:31 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399998816 | $1.50 |