peut-etreELM
0x800a5a9464f5f21d7240a7d7fd9d92336825c0ee
- Realised P&L
- $71.81
- Volume
- $29.2k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $185.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.11at 0.018Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$9.45at 0.880Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
- +$9.20at 0.540Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09?
- +$8.64at 0.004Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$8.20at 0.120Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 12:02 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.083 | $0.83 |
| 10-15 11:24 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.30 |
| 10-13 19:50 | French election called by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.096475 | $1.93 |
| 10-13 07:47 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | SELL | 0.49 | $7.14 |
| 10-11 19:21 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.46 |
| 10-09 10:18 | Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.926 | $18.52 |
| 10-09 10:15 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $25.52 |
| 10-09 10:10 | Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.926 | $9.26 |
| 10-04 15:50 | Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.948 | $18.96 |
| 10-04 15:40 | Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.948 | $18.96 |
| 10-04 15:39 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 04-03 23:09 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 04-01 11:29 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 03-31 11:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 03-30 21:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.98 |