avon5
0x7ffc53e8b88c2cda6e2c9be761fdc6da414dd342
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $401.7k
- Markets traded
- 224
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded224
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.667 | 0.639 | $4.6k | −$194.61 |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.373 | 0.282 | $541.24 | −$173.39 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.910 | $91.00 | +$22.00 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.868 | 0.875 | $87.53 | +$0.74 |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · No | 0.552 | 0.348 | $84.95 | −$49.80 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.359 | 0.090 | $4.41 | −$13.17 |
| Will Lyon qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.68 |
| Will Lyon qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.01 |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$148.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.157Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$227.96at 0.565Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$173.89at 0.420LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$167.20at 0.744SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7?
- +$164.78at 0.250Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 15:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 15:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 12:06 | LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.68 |
| 08-21 19:28 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-08-21? | BUY | 0.52 | $39.15 |
| 08-07 13:01 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.79 | $158.00 |
| 08-07 12:31 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.2245456198 | $61.75 |
| 08-07 12:30 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.24 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 06:48 | Will Lyon qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? | BUY | 0.03 | $0.30 |
| 07-25 10:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.6899999925 | $25.00 |
| 07-18 13:31 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.10 |
| 07-11 21:57 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.999 | $159.84 |
| 07-11 20:40 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.63 | $69.30 |
| 07-09 18:29 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.266 | $133.00 |
| 07-06 21:07 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.4599999988 | $105.00 |
| 07-06 21:05 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.027708 | $1.39 |