0x7faa3BA9879Ed2e62101eEe90D61Ea633662994E-1768575008708
0x7faa3ba9879ed2e62101eee90d61ea633662994e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.33
- Volume
- $15.4k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $720.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.935 | $502.69 | +$2.69 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · Yes | 0.797 | 0.812 | $203.76 | +$3.76 |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.045 | $10.13 | −$5.87 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.055 | $3.85 | −$13.95 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.481 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? · No | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.12 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · No | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$206.78 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$144.66at 0.740Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$70.27at 0.740US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$63.01at 0.767Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$32.19at 0.606US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$30.90at 0.890US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 07:43 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 13:22 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $500.00 |
| 09-23 13:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.797006285 | $200.00 |
| 08-14 10:41 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999997 | $250.00 |
| 06-15 09:45 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.051 | $2.83 |
| 06-15 09:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $26.56 |
| 05-27 04:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.6199999927 | $27.00 |
| 05-27 04:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY | 0.8299999993 | $100.00 |
| 05-27 04:43 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999985 | $50.00 |
| 05-26 12:03 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $500.00 |
| 05-26 06:01 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $150.00 |
| 04-18 12:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.7099999885 | $8.00 |
| 04-15 03:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.7699999995 | $200.00 |
| 04-11 14:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 04-10 07:15 | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.50 |