polstr
0x7f98c72491b2eea080e82f7e5c12536c3fde14c4
- Realised P&L
- $-602.29
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $387.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.195 | $114.71 | +$14.71 |
| Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 · Pacquiao | 0.510 | 0.505 | $99.02 | −$0.98 |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.430 | $95.65 | −$4.35 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026? · No | 0.982 | 0.987 | $19.69 | +$0.09 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No | 0.900 | 0.895 | $19.49 | −$0.11 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No | 0.989 | 0.983 | $19.47 | −$0.13 |
| Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.890 | $19.00 | −$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.21at 0.593UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
- +$23.58at 0.760UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$21.57at 0.799UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
- +$20.70at 0.828UFC 331: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
- +$-1.87at 0.933Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:53 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.8999999908 | $19.60 |
| 09-21 10:53 | Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? | BUY | 0.9182197778 | $19.60 |
| 09-21 10:53 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $19.60 |
| 09-21 10:53 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026? | BUY | 0.9819999998 | $19.60 |
| 09-20 20:01 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8102749122 | $90.01 |
| 09-20 17:27 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.900203446 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 17:27 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.89 | $98.89 |
| 09-20 17:26 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.9 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 17:26 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8124619808 | $89.01 |
| 09-20 04:29 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.4495504484 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 04:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.1699999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 03:10 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9127456755 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 03:10 | UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | SELL | 0.999 | $133.20 |
| 09-20 00:56 | UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims) | SELL | 0.0386901173 | $5.77 |
| 09-20 00:24 | UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |