0x7f8d4f5dac123c2292d7531860ee8492f2b933d5
- Realised P&L
- $-48.03
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $43.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.740 | $40.70 | −$4.40 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.115 | $2.30 | −$11.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.53at 0.742Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$9.37at 0.844Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$8.08at 0.690Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$7.27at 0.862Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$0.83at 0.025Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 16:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 08-18 16:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 08-15 12:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.983 | $49.15 |
| 07-26 10:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $68.88 |
| 07-26 10:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.992 | $69.44 |
| 07-19 12:10 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.076 | $5.70 |
| 07-07 17:39 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.015 | $5.76 |
| 07-04 18:27 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.171 | $46.17 |
| 07-04 06:08 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.173 | $4.50 |
| 07-03 21:04 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.194 | $17.07 |
| 07-03 09:32 | Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.024 | $3.91 |
| 07-02 09:51 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 06-23 16:09 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |