0x7F2486C0A1789D3fFd52010C0ff73c9C90BdD9e8-1776500544011
0x7f2486c0a1789d3ffd52010c0ff73c9c90bdd9e8
- Realised P&L
- $3.06
- Volume
- $656.80
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $3.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warsh say "Pressure" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.545 | $3.73 | −$1.27 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.29at 0.700US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$3.00at 0.250Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
- +$0.62at 0.619US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$0.39at 0.720Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$0.03at 0.995Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 13:31 | Will Warsh say "Pressure" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 16:52 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 16:52 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 04-26 05:12 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.00 |
| 04-24 14:31 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 04-22 00:58 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 04-22 00:57 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 04-20 16:37 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 04-20 16:36 | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY | 0.6189998675 | $1.00 |
| 04-20 16:35 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 08:28 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |