elec7ron
0x7f041dc2c28e1690d88e8eacea86c30078c43277
- Realised P&L
- $-392.21
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $16.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flames vs. Kraken · Kraken | 0.740 | 0.725 | $14.50 | −$0.30 |
| Will Nicaragua win on 2026-09-24? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.032 | $1.70 | −$7.84 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.69 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.33at 0.572New Pope in 2025?
- +$14.24at 0.952Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?
- +$8.80at 0.964Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$3.50at 0.770Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$-0.49at 0.331Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-09-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 00:32 | Flames vs. Kraken | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 09-24 22:48 | Will Nicaragua win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.18 | $9.54 |
| 09-24 12:57 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-09-24? | SELL | 0.31 | $4.80 |
| 09-24 12:51 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.32 | $4.96 |
| 02-04 18:55 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.0570000005 | $7.58 |
| 01-17 13:40 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $7.57 |
| 01-13 21:59 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999975 | $196.69 |
| 01-03 23:01 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1716344175 | $100.00 |
| 12-22 23:56 | Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.9519999999 | $282.45 |
| 12-22 23:56 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | SELL | 0.995 | $282.45 |
| 11-09 21:30 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.964 | $73.66 |
| 11-09 19:36 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9639999998 | $100.00 |
| 11-09 19:36 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9639999998 | $100.00 |
| 11-09 16:06 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $273.67 |
| 11-07 18:21 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.55 | $295.13 |