Harold1710
0x7eba0b838e21a258b61185a3177e943ae5b36191
- Realised P&L
- $3.72
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 437
- Open portfolio
- $46.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded437
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C or higher on September 23? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $22.91 | +$0.01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 22? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $13.12 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on September 23? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $10.29 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.66at 0.994Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12?
- +$0.41at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
- +$0.37at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
- +$0.11at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 02:44 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.9989999332 | $10.30 |
| 09-22 20:48 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C or higher on September 23? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.90 |
| 09-22 19:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.10 |
| 09-21 19:28 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.50 |
| 09-18 01:12 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C or higher on September 18? | BUY | 0.9989999746 | $30.20 |
| 09-17 15:26 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.90 |
| 09-13 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.9989999584 | $21.10 |
| 09-11 03:25 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.80 |
| 09-10 20:38 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 09-07 16:41 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on September 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.70 |
| 09-06 14:09 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.40 |
| 09-06 05:14 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.60 |
| 09-06 01:42 | Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.70 |
| 09-05 07:46 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.59 |
| 09-05 00:34 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.20 |