0x7E57D6216DC69f9a27134aF5d48c1b21702AB095-1761653520798
0x7e57d6216dc69f9a27134af5d48c1b21702ab095
- Realised P&L
- $166.78
- Volume
- $11.7k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $35.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Werwulf win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards? · No | 0.870 | 0.888 | $17.77 | +$0.37 |
| Will Solana hit $300 by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.875 | $17.50 | −$1.50 |
| Knicks vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.09 |
| Wizards vs. Knicks · Wizards | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.14 |
| Nets vs. Pistons · Pistons | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.80 |
| Spurs vs. Heat · Heat | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$176.75 |
| Suns vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.229 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$89.31 |
| Magic vs. Raptors · Magic | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$139.50 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.32 |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$173.60 |
| Spurs vs. Kings · Kings | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.02 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pelicans · Pelicans | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$258.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$349.71at 0.539Hawks vs. Cavaliers
- +$329.34at 0.340Bucks vs. Jazz
- +$307.26at 0.605Hawks vs. Knicks
- +$254.43at 0.556Raptors vs. Pistons
- +$139.34at 0.64576ers vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 09:42 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.912 | $5.39 |
| 08-29 09:25 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.918 | $5.43 |
| 08-25 09:51 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $15.48 |
| 08-25 09:51 | Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $19.21 |
| 07-29 07:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $15.48 |
| 06-24 09:42 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.66 | $95.75 |
| 05-27 06:53 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6892556021 | $100.00 |
| 05-23 09:00 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY | 0.938 | $17.82 |
| 04-18 09:34 | Hawks vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.68 | $266.78 |
| 04-08 10:24 | Hawks vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.53 | $206.02 |
| 04-06 10:49 | 76ers vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.77 | $151.87 |
| 03-31 08:01 | Raptors vs. Pistons | BUY | 0.57 | $166.59 |
| 03-30 11:14 | Bulls vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.95 | $104.20 |
| 03-29 11:44 | Magic vs. Raptors | BUY | 0.45 | $139.50 |
| 03-28 08:15 | Pistons vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.56 | $173.60 |