vamosalaplaya
0x7e06dea43b3c9bf17f35bd8545c111a5046318bc
- Realised P&L
- $13.99
- Volume
- $251.2k
- Markets traded
- 326
- Open portfolio
- $279.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded326
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? · No | 0.977 | 0.967 | $157.01 | −$1.63 |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? · No | 0.957 | 0.947 | $47.33 | −$0.53 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.972 | 0.983 | $29.49 | +$0.33 |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.880 | $26.40 | +$0.60 |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027? · No | 0.966 | 0.962 | $19.24 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.95at 0.591Bitcoin all time high by Mar 31?
- +$29.83at 0.426Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
- +$29.25at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August?
- +$27.32at 0.830Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$27.28at 0.994Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 15:56 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.86 | $25.80 |
| 10-24 15:53 | Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? | BUY | 0.957 | $47.85 |
| 10-24 15:53 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $19.32 |
| 10-24 15:52 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? | BUY | 0.9749999864 | $50.00 |
| 10-07 08:06 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | SELL | 0.9779903748 | $316.00 |
| 10-04 12:39 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.88 | $26.40 |
| 10-04 12:37 | NATO dissolves before 2027? | SELL | 0.986 | $10.06 |
| 10-04 12:36 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | SELL | 0.978 | $195.60 |
| 10-03 12:26 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | SELL | 0.988 | $177.84 |
| 09-15 13:30 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | BUY | 0.977 | $19.54 |
| 09-15 13:30 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | BUY | 0.977 | $97.70 |
| 09-12 14:16 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.991 | $39.64 |
| 09-12 14:14 | Trump goes to space in 2026? | BUY | 0.9799999935 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 11:29 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-05 11:29 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.50 |