0x7dfac4385200dde9f68c1c8c40116313f4385803
0x7dfac4385200dde9f68c1c8c40116313f4385803
- Realised P&L
- $-25.98
- Volume
- $335.82
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $18.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? · Yes | 0.818 | 1.000 | $12.22 | +$2.22 |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.957 | $6.70 | +$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.23at 0.806Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 23 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
- +$6.21at 0.586Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- +$5.76at 0.847Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
- +$1.20at 0.940Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?
- +$0.40at 0.960Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 09:39 | Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | BUY | 0.817999999 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 21:18 | Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.2 | $5.80 |
| 03-30 19:35 | Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $5.74 |
| 03-30 19:35 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000? | BUY | 0.76 | $6.08 |
| 03-26 18:31 | Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? | BUY | 0.6089795918 | $29.84 |
| 03-25 20:22 | Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 03-25 20:16 | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 03-25 20:15 | Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 03-24 21:53 | Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $9.02 |
| 03-24 21:40 | Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | BUY | 0.586 | $4.77 |
| 03-23 19:37 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 23 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000? | BUY | 0.85 | $20.28 |
| 03-23 19:35 | Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | BUY | 0.87 | $13.92 |
| 03-23 19:19 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 23 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000? | BUY | 0.7885294118 | $26.81 |
| 03-22 17:12 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9829999952 | $12.00 |