0x7Db4d9d1Decd9EE595eA4B51af9076c4d6B407c9-1768169729408
0x7db4d9d1decd9ee595ea4b51af9076c4d6b407c9
- Realised P&L
- $91.62
- Volume
- $15.0k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $293.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece? · No | 0.856 | 0.958 | $253.88 | +$26.97 |
| Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.845 | $39.91 | +$1.65 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will "The Odyssey" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.548 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$165.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.318 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? · No | 0.774 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$157.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$250.00at 0.167Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
- +$245.46at 0.550US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$135.70at 0.497Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?
- +$121.85at 0.711Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
- +$97.73at 0.460Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 20:16 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $38.26 |
| 07-24 12:54 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $132.00 |
| 07-17 21:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | SELL | 0.38 | $25.67 |
| 07-17 21:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | BUY | 0.3699999938 | $25.00 |
| 07-15 21:51 | Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.86 | $141.91 |
| 07-15 21:51 | Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 07-15 21:48 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6599670006 | $200.00 |
| 07-15 21:45 | Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.962198594 | $242.25 |
| 07-11 11:49 | Will "The Odyssey" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.0850673003 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 11:48 | Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.7943653015 | $200.00 |
| 07-11 11:47 | Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | SELL | 0.81 | $220.90 |
| 07-09 09:22 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-07 21:56 | Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | SELL | 0.1135274262 | $16.14 |
| 07-06 21:07 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.45 | $106.25 |
| 07-06 19:04 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.4235284839 | $100.00 |