LILLIANSSY
0x7d29063eca95ed4bc3a944bfae452b07f34afe6d
- Realised P&L
- $-27.35
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 128
- Open portfolio
- $34.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded128
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31? · Yes | 0.408 | 0.300 | $28.93 | −$10.45 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.065 | $3.02 | −$16.98 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.025 | $2.33 | −$17.67 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.25at 0.032Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$9.41at 0.340Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
- +$8.84at 0.601Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?
- +$6.40at 0.720Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$6.25at 0.800Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 05:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $8.84 |
| 04-17 05:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.33 | $5.89 |
| 04-10 08:33 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.6899999393 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 08:32 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.541 | $9.93 |
| 04-10 08:31 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 08:30 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.5444555338 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 08:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.5599999989 | $20.00 |
| 04-08 05:50 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 9? | BUY | 0.0347107113 | $0.90 |
| 04-08 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $0.91 |
| 04-08 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $0.92 |
| 04-08 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.0372548665 | $0.90 |
| 04-08 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.0219999787 | $0.90 |
| 04-08 05:44 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $0.96 |
| 04-08 05:44 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $1.92 |
| 04-08 05:44 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $1.92 |