cervlord
0x7cdc0a3bda5e11762a12a20422f2dfb39bdf5759
- Realised P&L
- $-331.24
- Volume
- $15.6k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $854.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$142.01at 0.050Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$111.29at 0.100Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$29.88at 0.591Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$17.37at 0.190Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
- +$13.90at 0.250Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 17:09 | Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6593406577 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 17:53 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6089489 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 17:30 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.649999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 13:21 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 12:23 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6099999985 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 12:16 | Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.2504767259 | $11.14 |
| 07-22 19:05 | Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7899999926 | $99.38 |
| 07-22 10:05 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699999978 | $80.00 |
| 07-22 08:30 | Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9652504069 | $77.09 |
| 07-19 20:29 | Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1735841298 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 20:27 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.32257388 | $161.29 |
| 07-19 20:22 | Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1387424385 | $50.00 |
| 07-17 07:32 | Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 05-07 08:41 | Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.209999993 | $23.53 |
| 04-27 06:31 | Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5911330049 | $46.43 |