0x7cd843cf8ec39741149f3c7dc27808016e7228d2
0x7cd843cf8ec39741149f3c7dc27808016e7228d2
- Realised P&L
- $404.75
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $129.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 15? · Yes | 0.567 | 0.996 | $74.70 | +$32.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on October 14? · No | 0.508 | 1.000 | $55.02 | +$27.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on October 14? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? · No | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.37at 0.368Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14?
- +$3.84at 0.901Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on October 14?
- +$0.01at 0.998Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-2.07at 0.017Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 21:49 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.1999157082 | $25.90 |
| 10-14 21:27 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 15? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.28 |
| 10-14 21:12 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.015768354 | $2.23 |
| 10-14 21:11 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.5673333333 | $42.55 |
| 10-14 21:09 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.6445263158 | $15.31 |
| 10-14 20:19 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.186787234 | $17.56 |
| 10-14 20:18 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.1757565257 | $31.04 |
| 10-14 19:11 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 10-14 19:10 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.4759068798 | $54.79 |
| 10-14 18:50 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.896 | $39.42 |
| 10-14 18:12 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.358 | $118.62 |
| 10-14 18:12 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.3873530548 | $80.20 |
| 09-21 08:50 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.00 |