retolo273
0x7c8cd661558862131a5e4c140ad9ec5f350e1bdc
- Realised P&L
- $694.92
- Volume
- $52.0k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? · No | 0.846 | 0.969 | $2.6k | +$331.95 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.952 | 0.981 | $1.7k | +$48.55 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.907 | 0.965 | $813.30 | +$48.49 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.945 | $75.60 | +$10.00 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.270 | $54.00 | +$20.67 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.210 | $42.00 | +$8.67 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.200 | $40.00 | +$6.67 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.185 | $37.00 | +$3.67 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.115 | $23.00 | −$10.33 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.080 | $3.25 | −$12.16 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.409 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.45 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$300.90at 0.613Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$243.92at 0.937NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?
- +$56.20at 0.927Will Biden pardon Trump?
- +$53.78at 0.986Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?
- +$49.37at 0.824Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 13:04 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.409 | $20.45 |
| 06-20 13:29 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.44 | $44.00 |
| 05-08 14:53 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.907 | $764.81 |
| 05-06 14:05 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | SELL | 0.2606785582 | $141.03 |
| 05-05 13:14 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | SELL | 0.32 | $4.80 |
| 05-04 16:40 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | SELL | 0.34 | $5.81 |
| 05-04 01:13 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | BUY | 0.3868142721 | $12.14 |
| 05-04 01:13 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 05-03 15:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | BUY | 0.3793685 | $379.37 |
| 05-03 15:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | BUY | 0.73692 | $147.38 |
| 05-03 15:24 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.1k |
| 03-18 19:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $65.60 |
| 02-09 23:55 | Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $348.41 |
| 02-09 23:54 | Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $123.12 |
| 02-09 14:27 | Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $402.44 |