DavisWilliamr
0x7c0817de631f6fa1c1dd25f0bea2d4b708afb0d4
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $19.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-40.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sion: Luca Staeheli vs Juan Manuel La Serna · Juan Manuel La Serna | 0.590 | 1.000 | $10.17 | +$4.17 |
| Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.982 | $6.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.577 | $2.91 | −$2.09 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds · Baltimore Orioles | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Set Handicap: Piatti (-1.5) vs Silva (+1.5) · Piatti | 0.384 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET · Down | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) · Timberwolves | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.5k |
| HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez · Leylah Fernandez | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$117.96at 0.477Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5
- +$111.22at 0.577Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?
- +$10.76at 0.653ITF Hurghada: Elizaveta Rozhkova vs Summer Yardley
- +$0.21at 0.950Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$0.12at 0.963Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 15:39 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 15:39 | Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $6.00 |
| 08-19 07:43 | Set Handicap: Piatti (-1.5) vs Silva (+1.5) | BUY | 0.3842364092 | $4.00 |
| 08-19 07:40 | Sion: Luca Staeheli vs Juan Manuel La Serna | BUY | 0.5899999902 | $6.00 |
| 07-05 12:34 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds | BUY | 0.5099999986 | $50.00 |
| 06-19 12:44 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.57 | $150.00 |
| 06-09 07:45 | ITF Hurghada: Elizaveta Rozhkova vs Summer Yardley | BUY | 0.6458022783 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 07:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4499999797 | $10.00 |
| 06-09 07:38 | HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez | BUY | 0.7099999918 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 00:07 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 | BUY | 0.4697540439 | $106.00 |
| 03-28 13:27 | Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) | BUY | 0.4899999999 | $2.5k |
| 03-07 17:34 | Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.9629999137 | $3.00 |
| 03-07 17:34 | Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $2.00 |
| 03-07 17:33 | Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.00 |
| 03-07 17:33 | Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31? | BUY | 0.9529999995 | $2.00 |