newRichard
0x7bed11e52651b2cd5bea1555165fd7105dc374fe
- Realised P&L
- $34.88
- Volume
- $812.93
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $17.29
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.652 | 0.710 | $5.43 | +$0.44 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.575 | $4.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.370 | $3.93 | −$1.06 |
| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.305 | $2.82 | −$2.17 |
| Will BC.Game Esports qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? · No | 0.632 | 0.029 | $0.23 | −$4.77 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.95at 0.510Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
- +$2.71at 0.560Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?
- +$2.14at 0.560Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?
- +$2.13at 0.470Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?
- +$1.71at 0.470Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 18:28 | Will SI.gov launch by October 15? | SELL | 0.62 | $6.08 |
| 10-08 08:33 | Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.65 |
| 10-07 22:51 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.84 |
| 10-07 22:50 | Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a warden? | SELL | 0.91 | $2.59 |
| 10-07 15:23 | Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.84 |
| 10-07 14:33 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $6.53 |
| 10-05 07:09 | Spain snap election called by October 31? | SELL | 0.68 | $6.66 |
| 10-03 23:07 | Will Miami (FL) Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.80 |
| 10-03 07:28 | Will Dak Prescott have 30.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.65 |
| 10-03 07:26 | Will Dak Prescott have 30.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |