nbragg
0x7bc73fe32d5545984399ffe1219bd89ada3070fb
- Realised P&L
- $66.63
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.749 | 0.840 | $753.63 | +$81.43 |
| Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.899 | 0.860 | $717.24 | −$32.76 |
| Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.571 | 0.675 | $295.31 | +$45.31 |
| Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.925 | 0.890 | $240.49 | −$9.51 |
| Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.595 | $49.58 | −$0.42 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET · Down | 0.658 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.01at 0.942Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?
- +$98.91at 0.872Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$97.47at 0.840Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$89.31at 0.840Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?
- +$81.20at 0.732Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 22:15 | Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7485220818 | $172.20 |
| 10-15 22:14 | Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5999999976 | $50.00 |
| 10-15 22:14 | Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5714285714 | $250.00 |
| 10-15 22:14 | Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9251912259 | $250.00 |
| 10-15 22:13 | Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8992805755 | $750.00 |
| 10-15 22:13 | Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7494903466 | $500.00 |
| 07-13 21:34 | Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2133294383 | $27.39 |
| 07-13 21:34 | Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.182 | $3.57 |
| 07-13 21:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $27.38 |
| 04-10 16:38 | USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3367876448 | $22.68 |
| 03-29 07:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | SELL | 0.13 | $1.21 |
| 03-29 07:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.529999965 | $4.84 |
| 03-29 07:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | BUY | 0.649999883 | $4.87 |
| 03-29 07:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $8.09 |
| 03-29 07:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | BUY | 0.6025405046 | $4.86 |