0x7bb62e47e1c0ee59ed4221f1b4445c386dd95085
- Realised P&L
- $-16.96
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $7.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.075 | $5.86 | −$1.17 |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.011 | $0.90 | −$1.91 |
| Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.011 | $0.56 | −$4.62 |
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.002 | $0.11 | −$1.37 |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.24 |
| Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.05at 0.030Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
- +$-0.12at 0.037Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$-0.16at 0.027Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$-0.23at 0.024Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$-0.23at 0.015Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-22 14:31 | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.64 |
| 03-22 14:31 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $1.95 |
| 03-22 14:31 | Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.03543309 | $2.77 |
| 03-22 14:31 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.94 |
| 03-22 14:31 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | SELL | 0.029 | $1.51 |
| 03-22 14:31 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $8.09 |
| 03-22 14:21 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 14:18 | Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.0699999827 | $3.72 |
| 03-22 14:17 | Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0975817762 | $5.18 |
| 03-22 14:16 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 14:14 | Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0430449223 | $2.24 |
| 03-22 14:07 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.56 |
| 03-22 13:46 | Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0196577166 | $1.48 |
| 03-22 13:46 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $1.17 |
| 03-22 13:46 | Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0370000001 | $2.89 |