StillWater0
0x7babd217c09df3a015e9a98325043190beaa8322
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $327.8k
- Markets traded
- 542
- Open portfolio
- $66.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded542
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.245 | $37.94 | +$5.42 |
| Will Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.215 | $28.81 | +$3.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$475.75at 0.098Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
- +$390.63at 0.046Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$336.86at 0.140Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
- +$266.52at 0.993MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$257.12at 0.115Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 20:07 | Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.110400032 | $13.80 |
| 10-26 17:33 | Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.50 |
| 10-26 17:22 | Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.0510133489 | $10.47 |
| 10-26 17:22 | Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.053 | $2.38 |
| 10-26 17:21 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.241 | $18.07 |
| 10-26 17:17 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.261 | $15.66 |
| 10-26 17:15 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.261 | $26.10 |
| 10-26 17:13 | Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.84 | $14.62 |
| 10-26 17:09 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 17:06 | Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 10-26 17:05 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.344 | $17.20 |
| 10-26 16:24 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.38 | $5.61 |
| 10-26 15:00 | Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.01 | $2.00 |
| 10-24 20:39 | Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 10-24 16:57 | Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |