StillWater0
0x7babd217c09df3a015e9a98325043190beaa8322
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $299.5k
- Markets traded
- 476
- Open portfolio
- $115.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded476
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.190 | $29.42 | −$3.10 |
| Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.202 | $29.19 | +$15.43 |
| Will Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.155 | $23.25 | −$5.25 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.045 | $22.50 | −$12.50 |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.056 | $8.32 | −$42.67 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.033 | $3.25 | −$10.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$475.75at 0.098Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
- +$390.63at 0.046Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$336.86at 0.140Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
- +$266.52at 0.993MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$257.12at 0.115Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 17:47 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.06 | $15.00 |
| 08-31 03:47 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $0.46 |
| 08-31 00:02 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $9.65 |
| 08-30 17:06 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | BUY | 0.039 | $0.58 |
| 08-30 13:47 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1934318182 | $8.51 |
| 08-28 14:01 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $19.58 |
| 08-28 00:53 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $26.06 |
| 08-28 00:42 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | SELL | 0.028 | $2.70 |
| 08-26 01:25 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1119433517 | $23.73 |
| 08-26 01:15 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.111 | $15.65 |
| 08-25 02:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0415686275 | $10.60 |
| 08-21 17:24 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.085682 | $12.85 |
| 08-17 23:04 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | BUY | 0.034 | $5.10 |
| 08-16 14:49 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | BUY | 0.027 | $2.70 |
| 08-14 06:09 | Will Trump say "Biden" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.1 | $6.80 |