ThoughGate
0x7ba74d0ccc0501caa64d3b628a6e3e3149c5b461
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $51.2k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $874.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$311.69at 0.632Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
- +$102.50at 0.487Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?
- +$53.25at 0.467Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
- +$51.70at 0.460Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
- +$49.09at 0.177Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 09:58 | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? | BUY | 0.35 | $350.00 |
| 07-01 09:18 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.48 | $96.00 |
| 07-01 09:17 | Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.09 | $27.00 |
| 07-01 09:17 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.11 | $99.00 |
| 06-29 18:20 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 06-29 18:20 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.39 | $11.70 |
| 06-29 18:20 | Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 06-29 18:20 | Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 06-29 18:20 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.1 | $60.00 |
| 06-29 18:19 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.07 | $42.00 |
| 06-29 18:19 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 06-29 18:19 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.42 | $42.00 |
| 06-29 18:18 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 03-28 00:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999986 | $48.44 |
| 03-23 18:39 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $25.32 |