Carryer
0x7ba1881073f0d78475d0e5442493a5037ea42f23
- Realised P&L
- $82.34
- Volume
- $6.5k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $15.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.996 | 0.999 | $11.23 | +$0.03 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.255 | $4.73 | −$0.65 |
| Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 18? · No | 0.255 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.14 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? · No | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.51 |
| Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.18at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
- +$65.03at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$64.68at 0.750Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
- +$64.62at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
- +$50.09at 0.750Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 13:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.20 |
| 09-11 13:43 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September? | BUY | 0.2899999865 | $5.38 |
| 08-22 03:25 | Will XRP dip to $0.40 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.50 |
| 08-22 03:22 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.2899999569 | $4.51 |
| 07-28 06:55 | Netanyahu out by July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.50 |
| 06-09 09:17 | Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $122.00 |
| 06-05 08:31 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.9989999928 | $122.00 |
| 06-04 11:28 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9214936867 | $112.00 |
| 06-02 03:35 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $112.00 |
| 05-30 08:58 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9989999921 | $112.00 |
| 05-28 06:39 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $111.00 |
| 05-25 10:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $111.00 |
| 05-24 09:26 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.9469999995 | $105.00 |
| 05-21 06:55 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.00 |
| 05-19 06:38 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.00 |