0x7b897fe64ef265f6c1038e92e0100536b422fa22
- Realised P&L
- $0.73
- Volume
- $34.61
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $5.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.865 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.915 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.795 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.655 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? · Down | 0.360 | 0.325 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.145 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.86at 0.350S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$1.56at 0.390Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$0.39at 0.720Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 05:34 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 19:05 | Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 10:28 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 5? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 02:06 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 09:50 | Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 01:47 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 17:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 09:46 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 21:10 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 00:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:21 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 02:46 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:38 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 10:37 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999699 | $1.00 |