Mary202
0x7b1472049ce364d9e1ff22bd88b7a2d5b7daf682
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $165.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.956 | 0.953 | $55.39 | −$0.20 |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.960 | $55.09 | +$0.00 |
| Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? · No | 0.940 | 0.880 | $49.76 | −$3.39 |
| Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.947 | 0.957 | $2.99 | +$0.03 |
| Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? · No | 0.967 | 0.994 | $1.95 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$144.00at 0.280Hawks vs. Knicks
- +$128.00at 0.360Cavaliers vs. Hawks
- +$122.00at 0.390Hawks vs. Bucks
- +$112.00at 0.440Vikings vs. Rams
- +$76.00at 0.620Heat vs. Hornets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 14:17 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.949 | $19.92 |
| 03-17 13:12 | Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.966 | $21.25 |
| 03-04 11:28 | Predators vs. Bruins | BUY | 0.55 | $220.00 |
| 01-20 06:55 | Mavericks vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.67 | $67.00 |
| 01-15 08:47 | Magic vs. Bucks | BUY | 0.34 | $136.00 |
| 01-13 09:41 | Vikings vs. Rams | BUY | 0.439999731 | $88.00 |
| 01-05 10:27 | Pelicans vs. Wizards | BUY | 0.37 | $148.00 |
| 12-18 11:58 | Texans vs. Chiefs | BUY | 0.41 | $164.00 |
| 12-13 10:19 | Chiefs vs. Browns | BUY | 0.6834884007 | $137.00 |
| 12-09 15:38 | Hawks vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 12-07 11:10 | Cavaliers vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.88 | $220.00 |
| 12-05 10:25 | Mavericks vs. Wizards | BUY | 0.9017112308 | $181.00 |
| 12-04 14:33 | Hawks vs. Bucks | BUY | 0.39 | $78.00 |
| 12-02 06:19 | Browns vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.73 | $146.00 |
| 11-28 07:43 | Cavaliers vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.36 | $72.00 |