0x7af7b4ecb83ffc58e84d8c7cc35be046c8425f97
0x7af7b4ecb83ffc58e84d8c7cc35be046c8425f97
- Realised P&L
- $-87.52
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $2.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.221 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.445 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.11at 0.195Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5
- +$13.58at 0.164Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?
- +$6.19at 0.256Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
- +$4.90at 0.306Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5
- +$4.86at 0.460Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income be above $1B?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 11:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 14:43 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 06:42 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 09:47 | Will Trump say "Melania" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 21:24 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 10:27 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 15:05 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 06:59 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 23:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.84 |
| 08-05 23:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $3.19 |
| 08-05 23:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.89 |
| 08-05 23:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.86 | $2.45 |
| 08-05 23:27 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.95 |
| 08-05 23:26 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.94 |
| 08-05 23:26 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $1.68 |