ceteris-paribus
0x7ac08009ff3224f39ca054ee4815bb1c19adeaf2
- Realised P&L
- $-85.33
- Volume
- $19.2k
- Markets traded
- 3,454
- Open portfolio
- $34.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,454
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: South Carolina (-3.5) · Mississippi State | 0.520 | 0.960 | $5.54 | +$2.54 |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss · Ole Miss | 0.440 | 0.675 | $4.60 | +$1.60 |
| Marshall vs. Missouri State: O/U 51.5 · Over | 0.550 | 0.795 | $4.34 | +$1.34 |
| Colorado vs. Northwestern · Northwestern | 0.630 | 0.850 | $4.05 | +$1.05 |
| Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee · Nevada | 0.620 | 0.620 | $3.00 | +$0.00 |
| Fresno State vs. San Jose State · Fresno State | 0.660 | 0.655 | $2.98 | −$0.02 |
| Spread: Florida Atlantic (-4.5) · Florida International | 0.490 | 0.485 | $2.97 | −$0.03 |
| Spread: Virginia (-6.5) · Virginia | 0.640 | 0.565 | $2.65 | −$0.35 |
| Florida vs. Auburn · Auburn | 0.460 | 0.375 | $2.45 | −$0.55 |
| Marshall vs. Missouri State · Missouri State | 0.380 | 0.155 | $1.22 | −$1.78 |
| Florida vs. Auburn: O/U 54.5 · Under | 0.550 | 0.180 | $0.98 | −$2.02 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets · Philadelphia Phillies | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| SMU vs. Louisville · SMU | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| North Texas vs. Texas State · North Texas | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) · Athletics | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.00at 0.200Vikings vs. Lions
- +$11.86at 0.407Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
- +$10.30at 0.533Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Jackson State Tigers: O/U 144.5
- +$10.04at 0.230Miami vs. SMU Mustangs
- +$9.50at 0.240Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 21:57 | Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati | SELL | 0.47 | $2.82 |
| 09-19 21:53 | Spread: Virginia (-6.5) | BUY | 0.64 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 21:49 | LSU vs. Ole Miss | BUY | 0.4399999883 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 21:40 | Fresno State vs. San Jose State | BUY | 0.659999934 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 21:03 | Colorado vs. Northwestern | BUY | 0.6299999685 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:59 | Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee | BUY | 0.6199999587 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:54 | Yale vs. Holy Cross | SELL | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 09-19 20:51 | Florida vs. Auburn: O/U 54.5 | BUY | 0.549999945 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:51 | Florida vs. Auburn | BUY | 0.4599999387 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:50 | Marshall vs. Missouri State | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:49 | Marshall vs. Missouri State: O/U 51.5 | BUY | 0.549999945 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:38 | Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati | BUY | 0.5 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:35 | Spread: Florida Atlantic (-4.5) | BUY | 0.4899999984 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 20:21 | Spread: South Carolina (-3.5) | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 19:14 | SMU vs. Louisville | BUY | 0.4399999883 | $3.00 |