willchangeyo
0x7ab5796623f927e37d5e7af85bf972d950b25379
- Realised P&L
- $-117.30
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $11.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.110 | $11.00 | −$3.00 |
| Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? · No | 0.444 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.78 |
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$82.00at 0.180Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
- +$25.19at 0.210Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 7?
- +$15.17at 0.901Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31?
- +$5.84at 0.958Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?
- +$4.50at 0.898Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-03 08:36 | Will the first eaglet hatch on April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $11.81 |
| 04-03 08:12 | Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $5.50 |
| 04-02 19:11 | Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 04-02 19:08 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.50 |
| 04-02 19:07 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 03-31 20:40 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 19:04 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? | BUY | 0.927 | $20.28 |
| 03-31 19:03 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? | BUY | 0.925 | $5.45 |
| 03-31 13:35 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? | BUY | 0.929 | $23.23 |
| 03-31 13:35 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? | BUY | 0.909 | $9.18 |
| 03-31 11:26 | Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? | BUY | 0.0168286168 | $0.64 |
| 03-31 07:17 | Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $28.81 |
| 03-31 07:17 | Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $32.04 |
| 03-31 06:23 | Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.66 |
| 03-31 05:59 | Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.92 |