Avitz33
0x7a90bfdb1c7bbb30ab19fdd48a6b49dede972ff9
- Realised P&L
- $12.5k
- Volume
- $805.0k
- Markets traded
- 1,227
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,227
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.224Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$1.4kat 0.101Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$1.1kat 0.540Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
- +$865.15at 0.457US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$852.98at 0.109Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:27 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.0741948098 | $25.05 |
| 09-16 16:30 | Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.55 |
| 09-16 16:30 | Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 09-15 20:33 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.053 | $30.63 |
| 09-15 15:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.49 | $49.00 |
| 09-15 15:02 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | BUY | 0.28 | $84.00 |
| 09-15 14:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.0198069498 | $1.23 |
| 09-15 14:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.0178329381 | $3.31 |
| 09-15 07:49 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.77 | $241.68 |
| 09-14 21:33 | NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? | BUY | 0.8399892194 | $132.46 |
| 09-14 21:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.0362591419 | $69.11 |
| 09-14 17:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.059 | $47.62 |
| 09-14 17:02 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $54.04 |
| 09-13 16:44 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.36 | $193.46 |
| 09-12 20:42 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.1581372549 | $32.26 |