livehouse66
0x7a4564e5cb3ec6c161ec27ee009e942e8c94964a
- Realised P&L
- $-36.19
- Volume
- $122.9k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $170.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.915 | $91.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.965 | 0.972 | $54.40 | +$0.36 |
| Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.525 | $14.95 | −$1.57 |
| Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.574 | 0.340 | $7.88 | −$5.43 |
| Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.375 | $1.04 | +$0.48 |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.38 | −$0.13 |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.00at 0.860Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$19.05at 0.840Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$14.46at 0.005Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$13.13at 0.870Pelicans vs. Thunder
- +$12.60at 0.790Clippers vs. Pacers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 03:44 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 07-31 03:44 | Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.58 | $16.52 |
| 07-31 03:43 | Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5741673857 | $13.31 |
| 07-31 03:43 | Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2 | $0.55 |
| 07-31 03:42 | Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $11.93 |
| 06-12 08:23 | Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.96 |
| 06-12 08:22 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 06-12 08:22 | Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $59.58 |
| 06-12 08:21 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $8.18 |
| 05-22 15:52 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $54.04 |
| 05-22 15:51 | Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $9.00 |
| 04-08 16:14 | Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.02 |
| 04-08 16:13 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $16.86 |
| 04-08 16:12 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.9141941748 | $94.16 |
| 03-27 09:10 | Clippers vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.79 | $47.40 |