USDC2M
0x7a3d3793d668060b5e0a8c1fdc8fb6425fce55d4
- Realised P&L
- $-164.14
- Volume
- $26.8k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $16.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.047 | $14.10 | −$18.90 |
| Revolut IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.026 | $2.60 | −$3.40 |
| Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.034 | $0.11 | −$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.67at 0.300Cerebras IPO before 2027?
- +$22.00at 0.490Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$21.00at 0.200US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$20.16at 0.690Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$18.30at 0.607Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-28 01:14 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL | 0.0234809 | $11.74 |
| 04-25 08:05 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 04-21 08:06 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.030920096 | $6.18 |
| 04-18 02:40 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.0440189 | $8.80 |
| 04-10 08:12 | Revolut IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.12242 | $12.24 |
| 03-03 00:53 | Deel IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.1121 | $11.21 |
| 03-01 01:18 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.20 |
| 02-17 01:28 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.02549432 | $12.75 |
| 01-31 14:58 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 02:23 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | SELL | 0.01392934 | $6.96 |
| 01-26 02:12 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 01-26 01:59 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 01-23 13:38 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 01-23 05:14 | Red Wings vs. Wild | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 01-22 00:20 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $56.00 |