Larix1
0x7a388e45fa9d76c42cbb7ab89fed0d3a2fefd6ab
- Realised P&L
- $-5.5k
- Volume
- $859.7k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.2kat 0.328Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
- +$5.0kat 0.242Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
- +$2.7kat 0.549Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
- +$1.5kat 0.256Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
- +$1.0kat 0.643Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 13:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $320.00 |
| 08-05 12:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $516.00 |
| 08-05 01:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 08-04 20:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 20:03 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $243.00 |
| 08-04 12:14 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 08-04 02:34 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 08-03 11:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $148.00 |
| 08-03 00:43 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $18.00 |
| 08-02 00:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.355375 | $142.15 |
| 08-02 00:28 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6258782805 | $180.53 |
| 07-31 11:41 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.0399833333 | $35.98 |
| 07-31 07:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 01:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.189 | $56.70 |
| 07-30 01:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.1895 | $18.95 |