PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

ohalving

0x7a1283669a8ee8db2043c46175dc1a381139f7fd

Realised P&L
$-2.0k
Volume
$121.5k
Markets traded
928
Open portfolio
$196.00

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded928
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? · Yes0.3730.315$94.50−$17.50
Will Kaka attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? · Yes0.4150.330$66.00−$17.00
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · No0.4000.355$35.50−$4.50
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? · No0.3810.000$0.00−$91.41
Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? · No0.0450.000$0.00−$28.55
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$3.80
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 6? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00−$4.00
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12? · No0.9100.000$0.00−$45.50
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? · No0.3170.000$0.00−$40.46
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? · Yes0.1320.000$0.00−$33.00
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00−$13.80
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00−$10.50
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 22? · No0.4830.000$0.00−$71.74
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00−$1.98
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00−$4.24

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-16 23:32Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 17?BUY0.38$1.90
10-14 23:08Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 15?SELL0.36$0.54
10-14 23:08Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 15?SELL0.57$2.54
10-14 00:39Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.56$71.94
10-14 00:32Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.34$14.41
10-14 00:30Will Trump say "Pipeline" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.0499594064$11.72
10-14 00:22Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.05$4.30
10-14 00:22Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.043$1.43
10-14 00:21Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.0448480891$19.09
10-13 22:16Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.047$5.84
10-13 21:50Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.69$138.00
10-13 21:49Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.32$27.88
10-13 21:49Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.31$12.57
10-13 21:48Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.39$77.00
10-13 21:48Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?BUY0.046$3.62
Trader ohalving · PolyBot Pro