0x79e23960e6577e9fbe8eeed260e1ccd464db997e
- Realised P&L
- $5.38
- Volume
- $93.08
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $14.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.825 | $4.23 | +$2.23 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.997 | $2.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will Fidelity Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.270 | 0.280 | $2.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? · No | 0.670 | 0.625 | $1.74 | −$0.13 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.490 | 0.395 | $1.52 | −$0.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.025 | $0.24 | −$1.76 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No | 0.250 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.14at 0.280Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.95at 0.350Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.92at 0.510Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 09:30 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 01:30 | Will Fidelity Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 17:29 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 09:27 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 01:08 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 17:06 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4899999767 | $1.89 |
| 08-02 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:36 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 05:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 21:38 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 13:33 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 13:23 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 16:15 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.6699999498 | $1.87 |
| 07-29 06:29 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |