0x7968289892bE00eFae4b24845aF1e6e826c99898-1768450950339
0x7968289892be00efae4b24845af1e6e826c99898
- Realised P&L
- $-175.20
- Volume
- $43.9k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $3.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.960 | 0.979 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? · No | 0.810 | 0.790 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Relay FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.960 | 0.878 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.820 | 0.250 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET · Down | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.17 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET · Down | 0.279 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.09 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.82 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 27? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26? · No | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.00at 0.500Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$31.84at 0.793Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?
- +$14.94at 0.770Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?
- +$9.43at 0.992Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?
- +$8.70at 0.948Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 06:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.21 | $18.92 |
| 09-03 14:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999971 | $54.95 |
| 09-01 10:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.42 | $57.58 |
| 08-29 09:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5799999981 | $79.52 |
| 08-29 09:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.984 | $81.54 |
| 08-26 12:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.8679999926 | $71.93 |
| 08-25 03:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.554 | $74.66 |
| 08-21 23:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7259999997 | $97.85 |
| 08-12 13:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | BUY | 0.9199999998 | $170.82 |
| 07-30 07:56 | Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.22 |
| 07-24 00:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | SELL | 0.91 | $182.91 |
| 07-17 23:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July? | BUY | 0.9439999998 | $157.00 |
| 07-17 23:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | SELL | 0.9735900141 | $103.35 |
| 07-11 07:07 | Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8 | $1.05 |
| 07-05 20:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9419999947 | $100.00 |