scottorhino
0x796590ec48bca1d8fd773bf52a66bf82e21409d9
- Realised P&L
- $16.2k
- Volume
- $448.6k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $31.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.812 | 0.895 | $15.9k | +$1.5k |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.980 | 0.990 | $6.1k | +$58.90 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.984 | 0.992 | $6.1k | +$51.18 |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.835 | $2.3k | +$68.52 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.818 | 0.961 | $1.6k | +$236.73 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.810Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$989.80at 0.909Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$869.58at 0.920Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$864.55at 0.770Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$818.55at 0.931Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 19:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.5k |
| 09-08 19:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9836102918 | $6.0k |
| 09-08 19:45 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $2.5k |
| 09-03 04:35 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.98 | $6.1k |
| 08-28 00:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.0k |
| 08-26 19:14 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.965837644 | $4.8k |
| 07-15 17:04 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9699953406 | $2.1k |
| 06-23 23:05 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.992 | $3.9k |
| 06-23 23:04 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9870016235 | $5.0k |
| 06-23 23:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $11.2k |
| 06-23 23:04 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.6k |
| 06-18 17:24 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9816414529 | $5.0k |
| 06-15 23:56 | Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.77 | $308.00 |
| 06-03 06:43 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.8179071016 | $1.4k |
| 06-03 06:42 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.8939888838 | $7.2k |