lakatosnapoleon
0x7957c850ca3ae06364dbf88382dc6beb85e8ddbc
- Realised P&L
- $617.81
- Volume
- $161.5k
- Markets traded
- 993
- Open portfolio
- $7.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded993
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$159.56at 0.880Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- +$106.86at 0.766Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?
- +$81.89at 0.086Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$74.89at 0.615Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$65.79at 0.853Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 20:12 | Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 10-28 20:09 | Saturn FDV above $500M one day after launch | SELL | 0.93 | $1.75 |
| 10-28 20:02 | Will Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BUY | 0.944 | $8.49 |
| 10-27 12:03 | Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.9693214544 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 12:02 | Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.89 |
| 10-27 12:02 | Tabi FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.951 | $29.48 |
| 10-27 12:02 | Dreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.887 | $0.89 |
| 10-27 12:00 | Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.8987156863 | $45.83 |
| 10-27 11:52 | Will South Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.952 | $47.59 |
| 10-27 11:44 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-10 House election by 30% or more? | BUY | 0.929 | $20.44 |
| 10-27 11:40 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more? | BUY | 0.909 | $45.45 |
| 10-27 11:37 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-02 House election by 12% or more? | BUY | 0.926 | $46.30 |
| 10-27 11:35 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be 4,700,000 or more? | BUY | 0.8983718 | $44.92 |
| 10-27 11:32 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be less than 1,600,000? | BUY | 0.899 | $44.95 |
| 10-27 11:27 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be 490,000 or more? | BUY | 0.928 | $46.40 |