0x7943306d73DA965D7F45cd3663D7b59123A4B918-1767884387608
0x7943306d73da965d7f45cd3663d7b59123a4b918
- Realised P&L
- $-450.53
- Volume
- $27.3k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $23.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$201.11at 0.090US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$144.51at 0.100Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
- +$132.27at 0.232Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$101.11at 0.090Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$93.21at 0.434Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 17:48 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.0195522916 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 17:47 | Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.0791244759 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 17:46 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 17:45 | Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0349999935 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 17:43 | Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 17:41 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.038 | $3.36 |
| 05-26 14:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $39.13 |
| 04-24 08:03 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 25? | BUY | 0.077863759 | $10.83 |
| 04-24 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 25? | BUY | 0.0208863081 | $9.02 |
| 04-24 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 25? | BUY | 0.009420572 | $4.50 |
| 04-14 14:46 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY | 0.0410000001 | $20.00 |
| 04-08 18:20 | US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0477360828 | $46.77 |
| 04-08 18:19 | US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.211559282 | $70.00 |
| 04-08 18:19 | JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.1987447699 | $95.00 |
| 04-08 18:15 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | BUY | 0.0923470747 | $20.00 |