0x793ca80ac11109d0653dc87a5fa775da773a932b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.67
- Volume
- $334.75
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $2.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.505 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.059 | $0.51 | −$1.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?
- +$5.35at 0.278Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.11at 0.492Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
- +$2.03at 0.502Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 00:12 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 07:29 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 23:17 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 14:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 13:45 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 17:11 | Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 07:20 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 23:18 | Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August? | BUY | 0.7399997262 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 14:53 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 06:50 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 22:02 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 13:46 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 03:05 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 15:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |