GILVANFARMTESTE
0x793c612e81a437d078fe39c9af6ceddbb6fe84eb
- Realised P&L
- $-38.33
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $69.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.735 | $36.75 | −$1.75 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.660 | $33.00 | −$12.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.04at 0.970Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-06 House election by 20%-25%?
- +$-0.04at 0.934Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- +$-0.22at 0.870Will Orleans Brandão win the Governor of Maranhão election?
- +$-0.24at 0.931Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
- +$-0.26at 0.921Will Renato Casagrande win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 13:55 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.929 | $46.45 |
| 10-02 13:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.26 | $23.40 |
| 10-02 13:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.27 | $2.70 |
| 10-01 23:50 | Denmark snap election called by December 31? | SELL | 0.0102 | $0.51 |
| 10-01 23:50 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 10%-15%? | SELL | 0.0659 | $3.29 |
| 10-01 23:50 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 12%-15%? | SELL | 0.1130478851 | $14.16 |
| 10-01 21:39 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.596 | $59.60 |
| 10-01 21:08 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 10-01 21:08 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 10-01 20:43 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.791 | $39.55 |
| 10-01 20:32 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-06 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.972 | $48.60 |
| 10-01 18:13 | Umia listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.55 |
| 10-01 17:47 | Umia listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? | SELL | 0.015 | $1.50 |
| 10-01 17:36 | No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.78 | $38.73 |
| 10-01 17:35 | Will Renato Casagrande win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election? | SELL | 0.916 | $28.91 |