M4rketm4ker
0x791f02e7be0c8ca85da4efa8a13e540a7f66e166
- Realised P&L
- $-156.21
- Volume
- $9.7k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $102.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)17.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting? · No | 0.330 | 0.215 | $47.53 | −$25.42 |
| Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? · Yes | 0.638 | 0.545 | $42.66 | −$7.28 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.165 | $12.27 | −$1.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.56at 0.530Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
- +$4.79at 0.140Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
- +$1.33at 0.176Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?
- +$0.66at 0.380Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.140Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 19:30 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 in August? | SELL | 0.02 | $1.79 |
| 08-04 18:40 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $79.28 |
| 08-04 02:51 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | SELL | 0.14 | $70.35 |
| 08-04 02:39 | Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 08-04 01:48 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.794 | $70.40 |
| 08-03 11:10 | Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? | SELL | 0.7450227708 | $70.02 |
| 08-03 06:17 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2698715166 | $49.49 |
| 08-02 05:13 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $27.12 |
| 08-01 22:53 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $43.24 |
| 08-01 22:26 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? | SELL | 0.752498008 | $45.33 |
| 07-31 16:51 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | SELL | 0.72 | $27.36 |
| 07-31 15:55 | Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? | SELL | 0.329 | $58.23 |
| 07-31 13:12 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.52 | $45.67 |
| 07-31 10:57 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31? | SELL | 0.65 | $44.88 |
| 07-30 19:51 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.35 | $48.71 |