M4rketm4ker
0x791f02e7be0c8ca85da4efa8a13e540a7f66e166
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $37.5k
- Markets traded
- 245
- Open portfolio
- $23.51
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded245
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.180 | $18.16 | −$10.09 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham to finish higher? · Bellingham | 0.370 | 0.330 | $3.52 | −$0.43 |
| Will Arizona State have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.210 | $1.82 | −$3.03 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.79at 0.140Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
- +$4.77at 0.410Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- +$3.86at 0.530Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
- +$1.60at 0.400US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.140Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 08:00 | Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.72 | $44.01 |
| 10-05 05:05 | Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.32 | $2.24 |
| 10-04 22:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? | SELL | 0.64 | $46.66 |
| 10-04 21:35 | Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $2.16 |
| 10-04 20:28 | Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.80 |
| 10-04 19:14 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? | SELL | 0.64 | $17.92 |
| 10-04 17:12 | Will Las Vegas Aces advance to the Finals in the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.41 | $5.49 |
| 10-04 13:04 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $4.15 |
| 10-03 18:24 | Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $29.44 |
| 10-03 17:21 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham to finish higher? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.33 |
| 10-03 11:08 | Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $69.63 |
| 10-03 05:50 | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.54 | $35.12 |
| 10-03 00:20 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.37 | $8.19 |
| 10-02 09:04 | Will Arkansas have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.59 |
| 10-01 06:10 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $18.92 |