0x791502238B87aF8C278460AD9C859656ca9D4c1a-1778181369076
0x791502238b87af8c278460ad9c859656ca9d4c1a
- Realised P&L
- $-4.35
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $17.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $12.19 | −$2.81 |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.587 | 0.229 | $5.07 | −$7.93 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.95at 0.260Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- +$3.24at 0.592 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$2.20at 0.669Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
- +$1.23at 0.681Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
- +$0.96at 0.940US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 15:17 | Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $15.00 |
| 09-25 11:40 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 07-20 10:32 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 07-20 10:25 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.049 | $12.00 |
| 07-07 15:22 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 06-30 12:34 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0780864705 | $19.12 |
| 06-30 12:31 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.053 | $13.71 |
| 06-30 11:46 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $7.11 |
| 06-24 08:22 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.6099999765 | $7.00 |
| 06-24 08:18 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 06-24 07:10 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? | SELL | 0.8067951807 | $10.04 |
| 06-24 07:08 | Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.586999999 | $13.00 |
| 06-24 07:07 | Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.2275779299 | $13.30 |
| 06-19 05:53 | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | BUY | 0.0617607042 | $5.00 |
| 06-19 00:50 | Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.3421616987 | $20.00 |