0x79025848a1fa61acd27762ccad00c2d2e166bd67
- Realised P&L
- $21.23
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $18.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.294 | 0.366 | $7.48 | +$1.48 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.706 | 0.805 | $5.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.954 | $3.39 | +$0.33 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.845 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.006 | $0.79 | −$1.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.77at 0.330Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$11.47at 0.083Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?
- +$7.28at 0.296Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03?
- +$6.11at 0.144Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England?
- +$4.33at 0.194Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 15:13 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $4.00 |
| 09-14 15:11 | Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.0089999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 16:41 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 12:52 | Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.0529999993 | $1.05 |
| 09-10 12:51 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 10:16 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2939999692 | $6.00 |
| 07-22 15:44 | Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July? | BUY | 0.1859998516 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 09:13 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9449998526 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 14:20 | England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 08:11 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3174999914 | $16.00 |
| 07-11 21:46 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2649998688 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 21:46 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2649998688 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 21:45 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | SELL | 0.435 | $4.64 |
| 07-11 21:24 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1874999355 | $2.00 |
| 07-08 07:25 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.155 | $3.54 |