0x78f9218fa127f46f6cb8fb7d6176b6e14cbc175d
0x78f9218fa127f46f6cb8fb7d6176b6e14cbc175d
- Realised P&L
- $5.03
- Volume
- $430.71
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $1.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.375 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.70? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.095 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.085 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.88at 0.340Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?
- +$3.08at 0.400SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 17:03 | Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.70? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 07:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 23:00 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2889999676 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:26 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:25 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 00:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:21 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 19:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 10:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 12:48 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:36 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |