the.legend.himself
0x78ee2c8de34c0f270aba4710af4cd19269905991
- Realised P&L
- $-3.8k
- Volume
- $209.6k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $31.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.001 | $28.00 | −$853.38 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $3.00 | −$37.99 |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$220.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.6k |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.00 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.24 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$495.99 |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$238.16at 0.180Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$163.05at 0.159Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$103.98at 0.690Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
- +$63.35at 0.371Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
- +$60.50at 0.789US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 12:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.208 | $832.00 |
| 06-30 19:26 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.071 | $284.00 |
| 06-30 16:20 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.28 | $560.00 |
| 06-24 19:51 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.049 | $98.00 |
| 06-17 19:07 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.085 | $170.00 |
| 06-17 18:49 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.01264435 | $25.29 |
| 06-17 18:44 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.013 | $10.40 |
| 06-17 18:44 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.012 | $2.40 |
| 06-17 18:07 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.43 |
| 06-17 17:28 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.016 | $10.09 |
| 06-17 17:25 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.016 | $16.00 |
| 06-17 17:22 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0158639513 | $126.91 |
| 06-17 17:22 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.014 | $8.86 |
| 06-17 17:22 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.013 | $13.82 |
| 06-17 17:21 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.013 | $13.00 |