furtigan
0x78ec920f3ea178e25bfeb92dcfd856c4e97f2d07
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $81.4k
- Markets traded
- 512
- Open portfolio
- $96.05
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded512
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$356.10at 0.408Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$269.75at 0.1222024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$203.80at 0.321Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$181.80at 0.090GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?
- +$168.32at 0.261Trump wins every swing state?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 23:08 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.555 | $2.78 |
| 05-15 23:08 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.555 | $5.55 |
| 05-15 23:08 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.555 | $5.55 |
| 05-15 23:08 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.555 | $8.33 |
| 05-15 23:07 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 05-15 23:07 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 05-15 23:06 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 05-15 23:05 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 05-15 23:05 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 05-15 13:17 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $6.00 |
| 05-15 13:15 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $12.00 |
| 05-15 13:10 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $12.00 |
| 05-15 13:07 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 05-15 13:07 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.011 | $7.81 |
| 05-15 13:05 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.011 | $8.69 |